gre argument 提綱
16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucrias public health program treats far more people than our states program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling.
A、L地區能夠花費能多的錢在教育上以及醫療項目能夠是能多人受益，并不一定是由于L地區的彩票。可能L地區本身的經濟就比較發達，政府在教育和醫療上的撥款數額比I地區大，還可能是L地區政府的教育和醫療的重視度比較高。即使L地區在教育和醫療上的進步是由于彩票，也是過去兩年的情況，并不能夠保證今后還能繼續發展下去。
B、即使L地區能夠繼續這樣發展下去，I地區采用同樣的方法后，也不一定能夠成功。因為兩個地區存在著很多不同，例如I地區的居民不太喜歡購買彩票，或者說I地區的居民收入不太高，他們不太會在彩票上投入資金。另外，I地區實行彩票后，可能會帶來一些負面影響，例如有些居民可能會沉溺于彩票當中，從而耽誤了正常的工作和生活。
C、文中的調查是否具有說服力值得商榷，作者并沒有交待該調查的樣本基數以及樣本是否隨機化。如果樣本基數不夠或者樣本選擇缺乏隨機性，則該調查不具有說服力。另外，該調查只在Capital City進行，并不能夠代表I地區。即使該調查具有說服力，I地區平均人均花費$50在賭博上，I地區的居民也未必會將這些錢用于購買彩票。賭博和彩票屬于兩個不同的概念。
17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
Walnut Groves town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABCs fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last years town survey agreed that they were satisfied with EZs performance.
A、ABC每周收集一次垃圾，EZ每周收集兩次，這并不表明ABC就要比EZ差。ABC雖然頻數小，可是他們收集的效果可能要好，例如收集得更干凈，服務態度更好;而EZ雖然每周收集兩次，但是他們可能收集地不太干凈。另外，一周收集兩次是否對于WG鎮是需要的，這點作者也沒有說清楚。
B、EZ訂購了額外的卡車，但作者并沒有說明ABC現在的計劃，可能ABC也在訂購額外的卡車。即使ABC不訂購額外的卡車，但是ABC現有的20輛卡車可能比較新，運載能力比EZ的卡車強。
C、懷疑調查樣本的基數以及選擇的隨機性。如果這兩個不能夠滿足的話，該調查就不具有說服力。另外，調查者是否說了真話?如果該調查采用了有利益的方式，則被調查者很可能因為最求利益而說假話。即使該調查具備上面說的條件，具有說服力，該調查也只能反映1年前的情況，并不能夠代表現在的情況。
18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.
A、首先，大部分駕駛員超速以及事故率下降很小，并不能夠表明P郡的這項措施失敗了。因為超速可能是由于該限速規則剛剛推出，或者P郡政府對該項新規則宣傳力度不夠，駕駛員對此并不了解。事故率下降很小，可能是由于P郡正處于多雨雪的季節，道路狀況比較差，容易引發交通事故。
B、B郡去年交通事故減少25%，作者并沒有給出交通事故的基數。如果該基數很小，那么減少25%并不能夠說明B郡的交通變得安全了，例如如果基數只有4，那么減少一起事故就減少了25%。作者沒有說明B郡的該項措施是成功的。即使25%說明了B郡的交通確實變得比原來安全了，也未必是由于B郡的道路車道變寬了和路面重鋪了。可能是由于B郡去年的氣候變化了，例如降水或降雪的天數減少。
C、即使B郡的交通變安全是因為B郡采取的這些措施，P郡效仿后也未必能夠起到同樣的效果。因為兩個郡的交通狀況不盡相同。例如P郡的交通路線要比B郡擁有更多的易發生交通事故的危險路段，P郡的氣候要比B郡多雨雪等。
19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
One year ago, tickets for Double Rices concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the bands increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the bands success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale.
A、DR在全國的演唱會門票平均需要至少24小時銷售完，并不意味著DR在M地區是如此。在M地區，DR可能擁有比其他地區更多的歌迷或者追溯著，或者，DR的門票可能比較昂貴，而M地區的居民普遍比較富裕，能夠支付得起。可能去年在M地區的銷售速度比12分鐘還要短。
B、即使DR在M地區門票銷售也是如此，那也只是一年前的了，正如作者所說，現在DR在14至25歲的人群那種已經掀起了一股熱潮，因此在M地區12分鐘售完門票未必就和廣告商有關。即使廣告商不宣傳，DR的追隨者也會踴躍購買門票。作者并沒有說明其中的聯系。
C、即使DR門票在12分鐘內售完和AL公司的廣告活動有關，那也僅是在M地區，在其他地區就未必能夠成功，不一定適合在全國范圍內推廣。AL公司可能對M地區居民的喜好比較了解，而AL公司未必對其他地區的居民的喜好有所了解。
20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the islands six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseaus town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.
A、作者并沒有交待當前這六家公司日出租數，如果該數本來就小于30，那么這則規定將不起任何作用。
B、作者錯誤地假設了B島的交通事故會增加是因為道路上摩托車和自行車數量多引起的。事實上可能是由于該島的道路交通設施，也可能是由于行人不遵守交通規則等等
C、作者并沒有交待T島交通事故下降50%的基數，如果該基數很小的話，則不能夠說明T島的該措施是成功的。例如基數只有2的話，即使只是減少1，也會有50%的下降比率。即使T島的交通確實變得安全了，也未必是由于實行了該措施導致的，可能是由于T島去年的氣候比較好，雨雪天氣少。即使確實是該措施導致，那也是去年的數據，今年未必能夠同樣有效。
D、即使該措施對于T島今年同樣有效，B島確實是由于道路上摩托車和自行車數量多引起交通事故，B島采取T島一樣的措施后也未必能夠成功。T島和B島的情況不盡相同。B島采取限制后，并不一定能夠減少道路上的自行車和摩托車的數量，人們可能會選擇自己去購買自行車或者摩托車。
16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucrias public health program treats far more people than our states program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling.
A、L地區能夠花費能多的錢在教育上以及醫療項目能夠是能多人受益，并不一定是由于L地區的彩票。可能L地區本身的經濟就比較發達，政府在教育和醫療上的撥款數額比I地區大，還可能是L地區政府的教育和醫療的重視度比較高。即使L地區在教育和醫療上的進步是由于彩票，也是過去兩年的情況，并不能夠保證今后還能繼續發展下去。
B、即使L地區能夠繼續這樣發展下去，I地區采用同樣的方法后，也不一定能夠成功。因為兩個地區存在著很多不同，例如I地區的居民不太喜歡購買彩票，或者說I地區的居民收入不太高，他們不太會在彩票上投入資金。另外，I地區實行彩票后，可能會帶來一些負面影響，例如有些居民可能會沉溺于彩票當中，從而耽誤了正常的工作和生活。
C、文中的調查是否具有說服力值得商榷，作者并沒有交待該調查的樣本基數以及樣本是否隨機化。如果樣本基數不夠或者樣本選擇缺乏隨機性，則該調查不具有說服力。另外，該調查只在Capital City進行，并不能夠代表I地區。即使該調查具有說服力，I地區平均人均花費$50在賭博上，I地區的居民也未必會將這些錢用于購買彩票。賭博和彩票屬于兩個不同的概念。
17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
Walnut Groves town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABCs fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last years town survey agreed that they were satisfied with EZs performance.
A、ABC每周收集一次垃圾，EZ每周收集兩次，這并不表明ABC就要比EZ差。ABC雖然頻數小，可是他們收集的效果可能要好，例如收集得更干凈，服務態度更好;而EZ雖然每周收集兩次，但是他們可能收集地不太干凈。另外，一周收集兩次是否對于WG鎮是需要的，這點作者也沒有說清楚。
B、EZ訂購了額外的卡車，但作者并沒有說明ABC現在的計劃，可能ABC也在訂購額外的卡車。即使ABC不訂購額外的卡車，但是ABC現有的20輛卡車可能比較新，運載能力比EZ的卡車強。
C、懷疑調查樣本的基數以及選擇的隨機性。如果這兩個不能夠滿足的話，該調查就不具有說服力。另外，調查者是否說了真話?如果該調查采用了有利益的方式，則被調查者很可能因為最求利益而說假話。即使該調查具備上面說的條件，具有說服力，該調查也只能反映1年前的情況，并不能夠代表現在的情況。
18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.
A、首先，大部分駕駛員超速以及事故率下降很小，并不能夠表明P郡的這項措施失敗了。因為超速可能是由于該限速規則剛剛推出，或者P郡政府對該項新規則宣傳力度不夠，駕駛員對此并不了解。事故率下降很小，可能是由于P郡正處于多雨雪的季節，道路狀況比較差，容易引發交通事故。
B、B郡去年交通事故減少25%，作者并沒有給出交通事故的基數。如果該基數很小，那么減少25%并不能夠說明B郡的交通變得安全了，例如如果基數只有4，那么減少一起事故就減少了25%。作者沒有說明B郡的該項措施是成功的。即使25%說明了B郡的交通確實變得比原來安全了，也未必是由于B郡的道路車道變寬了和路面重鋪了。可能是由于B郡去年的氣候變化了，例如降水或降雪的天數減少。
C、即使B郡的交通變安全是因為B郡采取的這些措施，P郡效仿后也未必能夠起到同樣的效果。因為兩個郡的交通狀況不盡相同。例如P郡的交通路線要比B郡擁有更多的易發生交通事故的危險路段，P郡的氣候要比B郡多雨雪等。
19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
One year ago, tickets for Double Rices concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the bands increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the bands success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale.
A、DR在全國的演唱會門票平均需要至少24小時銷售完，并不意味著DR在M地區是如此。在M地區，DR可能擁有比其他地區更多的歌迷或者追溯著，或者，DR的門票可能比較昂貴，而M地區的居民普遍比較富裕，能夠支付得起。可能去年在M地區的銷售速度比12分鐘還要短。
B、即使DR在M地區門票銷售也是如此，那也只是一年前的了，正如作者所說，現在DR在14至25歲的人群那種已經掀起了一股熱潮，因此在M地區12分鐘售完門票未必就和廣告商有關。即使廣告商不宣傳，DR的追隨者也會踴躍購買門票。作者并沒有說明其中的聯系。
C、即使DR門票在12分鐘內售完和AL公司的廣告活動有關，那也僅是在M地區，在其他地區就未必能夠成功，不一定適合在全國范圍內推廣。AL公司可能對M地區居民的喜好比較了解，而AL公司未必對其他地區的居民的喜好有所了解。
20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the islands six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseaus town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.
A、作者并沒有交待當前這六家公司日出租數，如果該數本來就小于30，那么這則規定將不起任何作用。
B、作者錯誤地假設了B島的交通事故會增加是因為道路上摩托車和自行車數量多引起的。事實上可能是由于該島的道路交通設施，也可能是由于行人不遵守交通規則等等
C、作者并沒有交待T島交通事故下降50%的基數，如果該基數很小的話，則不能夠說明T島的該措施是成功的。例如基數只有2的話，即使只是減少1，也會有50%的下降比率。即使T島的交通確實變得安全了，也未必是由于實行了該措施導致的，可能是由于T島去年的氣候比較好，雨雪天氣少。即使確實是該措施導致，那也是去年的數據，今年未必能夠同樣有效。
D、即使該措施對于T島今年同樣有效，B島確實是由于道路上摩托車和自行車數量多引起交通事故，B島采取T島一樣的措施后也未必能夠成功。T島和B島的情況不盡相同。B島采取限制后，并不一定能夠減少道路上的自行車和摩托車的數量，人們可能會選擇自己去購買自行車或者摩托車。
