THE reanimation of Americas housing market hasbeen a long time coming. Residential building lastcontributed positively to growth in 2005. Housing-construction employment has dropped 43% sincethen. Government efforts to resuscitate themarket have flopped. Yet tantalising signs of adurable recovery are emerging at last. TheNational Association of Home Builders index ofbuilder confidence rose for a fifth consecutivemonth in February, to its highest level since May2007 . Sales of previously-ownedhomes rose 4.3% from December to January. The housing overhang is receding. The numberof homes for sale dropped 21% in the year to January, to just over six months of supplyanormal level.

　　美國翹首以盼房屋市場復蘇等得脖子都長了。房屋市場把最后的一點力量貢獻給了2005年的經濟增長，隨后，房屋建造業的就業率就下降了43%。政府在拯救房屋市場的努力也懈怠了，好在耐用品市場最終顯示出好轉跡象。2月份房屋建造業協會的建設者信心指數迎來連續第5個月增長，達到了2007年5月份以來的最高水平。1月份二手房銷售比去年12月份上漲了4.3%，未售房產庫存量也有所下降。今年1月份，待售房屋數量下降21%稍稍多于半年的房屋供應量 一個正常水平。

　　The recovery is an odd one by American standards, centred on the rental market. Thoughhouse prices sank 4% in 2011, rents posted a 2.4% increase, thanks to tumbling vacancyrates. Tight conditions are a side-effect of the housing bust. Construction hit a record low in2011, surpassing a 2010 performance which itself displaced 2009s. The pressure fromAmericas growing population is now showing. Builders are responding. The number of newbuilding permits jumped 19% in the year to January. Approvals for buildings with five or moreunits, which are favoured by renters, soared by 61%.

　　這一主要在房屋租賃市場的復蘇現象以美國標準來看是比較奇怪的。雖然房價在2011年減少了4%，房屋租金卻因為縮水的房屋閑置率漲了2.4%。房市泡沫的一個副作用就是用地緊張。房屋建造業自2009年成績一路下滑，最后在2011年跌入谷底。美國人口增長的壓力現在開始顯現出來，施工人員回應道。今年1月份新房建造許可證的數量上升 19%。深受承租人青睞的有5個或更多單間的房屋建造許可證數量一下躥了61%。

　　Meanwhile, adults who sheltered with friends or family during the recession are striking outon their own. A Goldman Sachs analysis reckons that growth in new households has beensome 50% short of trend since the recession began, with over half of the shortfall comingfrom those aged 18-34. Goldman reckons the worst is over, and that the young should soonadd to new housing demand.

　　與此同時，在大蕭條時期和家人或朋友一起住的人也開始搬出去自己住。高盛投資的一位分析師稱，在大蕭條時期開始后新家庭的增長速度下降了有一半，這50%中有超過一半是18-34歲之間的年輕人造成的。高盛稱低潮已經過去，那些年輕人馬上就有購買新房的需求了。

　　Those rising rents make buying a bargain: as attractive as it has been for three decades,according to the National Association of Realtors index of housing affordability. Stocks ofhomes for sale are falling as investors snap up and convert vacant homes for renting out.Were it practical, mused Warren Buffett recently, he would buy up a couple of hundredthousand homes.

　　據國家房產經紀人協會的住房購買力指數顯示，租金的上漲讓購買新房相對便宜：可以說是30年來魅力不減。由于投資商搶購空房并轉手出租，待售房庫存量下降。最近沃倫?巴菲特思考道，這樣做是否有效，因為他要把數十萬的空房都買下來。

　　Yet despite this good news, housing finance is frail as ever. Lending rose in the fourth quarterof 2011, but stuck at the lowest level since 2000 for the year as a whole. The market is stillworking off sickly loans. New delinquencies are down sharply from 2008, yet more than $150billion in home loans became delinquent in the fourth quarter of last year. More trouble liesahead. Over 10m borrowers owe more than the value of their home. Banks are wary of newmortgagesand losseswhile prices are falling. The Federal Reserves Senior Loan OfficerSurvey suggests that lending standards remain higher than at the height of the recession.

　　不過，撇開這個好消息，住房信貸依舊虛弱如前。雖說房屋貸款在2011年第四季度上漲，但以全年整體水平來看，卻是自2000年以來的最低水平。更多的麻煩還在前面等著呢。超過1千萬名貸款買房者欠下銀行的債比他們的房子的資產還要多。在房價走低的時候，銀行對新按揭和損失處理得小心翼翼。美聯儲高級信貸人員調查顯示，借貸標準比大蕭條時期達到的高點還要高。

　　Washington remains behind the curve. Fearing for its finances, the Federal HousingAdministration is increasing fees on mortgages it insures, which account for roughly a third ofall new bank loans. A typical borrowers loan costs may rise by just $5 a month, yetAmerican Banker, a financial-services daily, suggests the rise could cut lending by billions ofdollars. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is moving only slowly to pack foreclosed-onhomes into bunches to be sold to investors for renting out. Thanks to those renters, the worstmay be over. But it will be years before the mortgage market fully recovers.

　　美國政府還沒有跟上形勢。因為擔心現在的財政狀況，聯邦住房管理局抬高了擔保按揭貸款的費用，大約占新的銀行貸款的三分之一。一個典型的貸款者每月需要還的房貸可能會上漲5美元，不過，金融類日報《美國銀行家》稱，還貸量增加可縮減數十億美元的借貸。聯邦住房金融署磨磨蹭蹭地把止贖房屋收回并賣給投資商，讓他們轉租出去。多虧那些租房者，最困難的坎兒似乎度過去了，但是想讓按揭市場完全好轉過來還需要很長時間。

　　THE reanimation of Americas housing market hasbeen a long time coming. Residential building lastcontributed positively to growth in 2005. Housing-construction employment has dropped 43% sincethen. Government efforts to resuscitate themarket have flopped. Yet tantalising signs of adurable recovery are emerging at last. TheNational Association of Home Builders index ofbuilder confidence rose for a fifth consecutivemonth in February, to its highest level since May2007 . Sales of previously-ownedhomes rose 4.3% from December to January. The housing overhang is receding. The numberof homes for sale dropped 21% in the year to January, to just over six months of supplyanormal level.

　　美國翹首以盼房屋市場復蘇等得脖子都長了。房屋市場把最后的一點力量貢獻給了2005年的經濟增長，隨后，房屋建造業的就業率就下降了43%。政府在拯救房屋市場的努力也懈怠了，好在耐用品市場最終顯示出好轉跡象。2月份房屋建造業協會的建設者信心指數迎來連續第5個月增長，達到了2007年5月份以來的最高水平。1月份二手房銷售比去年12月份上漲了4.3%，未售房產庫存量也有所下降。今年1月份，待售房屋數量下降21%稍稍多于半年的房屋供應量 一個正常水平。

　　The recovery is an odd one by American standards, centred on the rental market. Thoughhouse prices sank 4% in 2011, rents posted a 2.4% increase, thanks to tumbling vacancyrates. Tight conditions are a side-effect of the housing bust. Construction hit a record low in2011, surpassing a 2010 performance which itself displaced 2009s. The pressure fromAmericas growing population is now showing. Builders are responding. The number of newbuilding permits jumped 19% in the year to January. Approvals for buildings with five or moreunits, which are favoured by renters, soared by 61%.

　　這一主要在房屋租賃市場的復蘇現象以美國標準來看是比較奇怪的。雖然房價在2011年減少了4%，房屋租金卻因為縮水的房屋閑置率漲了2.4%。房市泡沫的一個副作用就是用地緊張。房屋建造業自2009年成績一路下滑，最后在2011年跌入谷底。美國人口增長的壓力現在開始顯現出來，施工人員回應道。今年1月份新房建造許可證的數量上升 19%。深受承租人青睞的有5個或更多單間的房屋建造許可證數量一下躥了61%。

　　Meanwhile, adults who sheltered with friends or family during the recession are striking outon their own. A Goldman Sachs analysis reckons that growth in new households has beensome 50% short of trend since the recession began, with over half of the shortfall comingfrom those aged 18-34. Goldman reckons the worst is over, and that the young should soonadd to new housing demand.

　　與此同時，在大蕭條時期和家人或朋友一起住的人也開始搬出去自己住。高盛投資的一位分析師稱，在大蕭條時期開始后新家庭的增長速度下降了有一半，這50%中有超過一半是18-34歲之間的年輕人造成的。高盛稱低潮已經過去，那些年輕人馬上就有購買新房的需求了。

　　Those rising rents make buying a bargain: as attractive as it has been for three decades,according to the National Association of Realtors index of housing affordability. Stocks ofhomes for sale are falling as investors snap up and convert vacant homes for renting out.Were it practical, mused Warren Buffett recently, he would buy up a couple of hundredthousand homes.

　　據國家房產經紀人協會的住房購買力指數顯示，租金的上漲讓購買新房相對便宜：可以說是30年來魅力不減。由于投資商搶購空房并轉手出租，待售房庫存量下降。最近沃倫?巴菲特思考道，這樣做是否有效，因為他要把數十萬的空房都買下來。

　　Yet despite this good news, housing finance is frail as ever. Lending rose in the fourth quarterof 2011, but stuck at the lowest level since 2000 for the year as a whole. The market is stillworking off sickly loans. New delinquencies are down sharply from 2008, yet more than $150billion in home loans became delinquent in the fourth quarter of last year. More trouble liesahead. Over 10m borrowers owe more than the value of their home. Banks are wary of newmortgagesand losseswhile prices are falling. The Federal Reserves Senior Loan OfficerSurvey suggests that lending standards remain higher than at the height of the recession.

　　不過，撇開這個好消息，住房信貸依舊虛弱如前。雖說房屋貸款在2011年第四季度上漲，但以全年整體水平來看，卻是自2000年以來的最低水平。更多的麻煩還在前面等著呢。超過1千萬名貸款買房者欠下銀行的債比他們的房子的資產還要多。在房價走低的時候，銀行對新按揭和損失處理得小心翼翼。美聯儲高級信貸人員調查顯示，借貸標準比大蕭條時期達到的高點還要高。

　　Washington remains behind the curve. Fearing for its finances, the Federal HousingAdministration is increasing fees on mortgages it insures, which account for roughly a third ofall new bank loans. A typical borrowers loan costs may rise by just $5 a month, yetAmerican Banker, a financial-services daily, suggests the rise could cut lending by billions ofdollars. The Federal Housing Finance Agency is moving only slowly to pack foreclosed-onhomes into bunches to be sold to investors for renting out. Thanks to those renters, the worstmay be over. But it will be years before the mortgage market fully recovers.

　　美國政府還沒有跟上形勢。因為擔心現在的財政狀況，聯邦住房管理局抬高了擔保按揭貸款的費用，大約占新的銀行貸款的三分之一。一個典型的貸款者每月需要還的房貸可能會上漲5美元，不過，金融類日報《美國銀行家》稱，還貸量增加可縮減數十億美元的借貸。聯邦住房金融署磨磨蹭蹭地把止贖房屋收回并賣給投資商，讓他們轉租出去。多虧那些租房者，最困難的坎兒似乎度過去了，但是想讓按揭市場完全好轉過來還需要很長時間。